The Illusion of Certainty Understanding Reality and the Culture of Intelligence
The surprise attack of October 7 exposed a deep gap that had developed in recent years between the political, military, and intelligence perceptions of Israel's decision-makers and actual reality. B.G. Brun claims that this gap played a central role in the IDF's inadequate preparedness on the morning of the attack. Since then, it has become clear that, as in other historical surprises, the Israeli intelligence community did in fact possess information that should have indicated not only the existence of this gap but also its magnitude. However, this information, along with additional warning signs that indicated the gap, failed to undermine the flawed perception framework of the decision-makers or prompt them to take more appropriate measures to prevent the attack.
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